End of Constellation?

Recent events at NASA show just what the new management team will do to try to shut down the Constellation Program. The Constellation program's funding is embedded into the 2010 national budget, which is technically still in effect until the new Fiscal Year 2011 Budget is passed by congress. Constellation can not be cancelled without approval from congress, as per a clause inserted into an emergency war fund for Afghanistan. So, for all intents and purposes, the Ares rocket is still in full development.

Obviously, Constellation is not part of President Obama's new space plan. It is now a kind of thorn in the side of his plan that just will not go away. While the plan will probably not be "cancelled" any time soon, top NASA administrators have been working their magic doing what they can legally to end the program.

One of their biggest moves was reassigning the program chief Jeff Hanley. Hanley was a major supporter for the Constellation program and one of the ones keeping it "full speed ahead" even after the new space plan was laid out. He was reassigned to a deputy position at Johnson Space Center. This news sparked some fires in congress who cried foul, calling it a deliberate attempt to end the Constellation program. However, there is nothing illegal about the reassignment, as any government job as that potential.

Most recently, NASA administrators decided to fight legality with legality. Although the program cannot be cancelled yet and must remain funded by law, NASA cited the Anti-Deficiency Act. This Act requires all federal contractors to set aside a portion of their payments to cover costs in case the project is ever cancelled. Basiclly, the contractor must set aside enough money from the payment they are getting from NASA for the contract to cover all the costs associated with being cancelled. By NASA's estimates, there is a $991 million shortfall because of this, and NASA as issued stop work orders to all the Constellation contractors until this deficit is fixed. Legally speaking, this all sounds fair, and when the money is paid off, then work can resume again. Realistically, it is not that simple.

The contractor hit the hardest by this is Alliant Techsystems Inc (ATK), a Utah based group. They have an estimated shortfall of $500 million. NASA has ordered them to come up with this money before they are allowed any more of their contract payments and before they can resume work. ATK was apparently shocked by this, showing evidence that since their first contract in 1976, NASA has repeatedly told them to NOT withhold money, as they do not observe the Anti-Deficiency Act. However, ATK has not been told this since 2007, which is when the new administration took over, so NASA is still legally safe with this order.

Overall, since these contractors have been receiving their payments from NASA as spending them on the contract, the money is not there so set aside to make up for these new "shortfalls", effectively ending contract work on the Constellation program. The primary down side to this instant stop work notice is the layoffs that will have to happen for these companies to now save the money that they were instructed to by NASA. Around 5,000 people are expected to loose their jobs.

Although technically Constellation is in the works, in actuality, it is not. With manager reassigned and stop work orders sent to contractors, the program is dead in the water. This is the first real sense that the Constellation program could be over. While it is possible to get the contractors back to work, it is highly unrealistic, and for the first time, pro-Constellation members of Congress might have to look into a new agreement that does not deal with Constellation as the future of America's space program.

Falcon in Flight

The Falcon flew today, but luckily, this time it doesn't involved a crazy balloon and a cross county police chase. Even though this launch was also somewhat of a publicity stunt, it makes sense. Space Exploration Technologies, known widely as SpaceX, successfully launched their Falcon 9 rocket today, topped with a dummy version of their Dragon capsule. This launch is significant in the fact that the Falcon 9 rocket is their primary vehicle that would be used to supply the International Space Station and possibly eventually fly NASA astronauts (or private astronauts) to orbit.

SpaceX is one of the few new commercial space flight companies that are developing space faring vehicles for public use. (Some of the other companies being Virgin Galactic, XCOR Aerospace, Bigelow Aerospace, and Orbital Sciences Corporation). It is also the leading private company in spaceflight. NASA awarded SpaceX (and Orbital Sciences Corporation) contracts for resupplying the ISS once the shuttle fleet is retired and while a new NASA space vehicle is developed. SpaceX plans for three space launch vehicles. The Falcon 1, the Falcon 9, and the Falcon 9 Heavy.

The Falcon 1 first test launched in the fall of 2008, and carried it's first commercial payload on July 13, 2009. It is a smaller sized rocket with an emphasis on reliability. It can launch a 1010kg payload into Low Earth Orbit (LEO) for $10.9M (According to estimates, the Space Shuttle can launch the same payload for $44.4M). It is a two stage, liquid oxygen and rocket grade kerosene fueled vehicle with a launch thrust of 115,000 lbf (for comparison, the shuttle launches with 5,600,000 lbf).

The Falcon 9 Heavy, not yet developed, will be a version of the Falcon 9 with extra boosters on the side. It will be able to carry a payload of around 32,000lbs to LEO.

The Falcon 9, launched today, is larger sized version of the Falcon 1. It uses the same fuel mixture and is also a two stage rocket. It is a bit over twice the size of the Falcon 1. It launches to LEO but also to Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GEO, the orbit where GPS satellites sit, rotating at the same speed of the Earth, so they are always in the same place). Launch costs to LEO average at $48.6M for between 8,560kg to 10,450kg. Launch cost to GEO average the same, but for payloads around 4,600kg. (According to estimates, the Space Shuttle can launch the same LEO payload average around $418.2M. It can not launch directly to GEO). Falcon 9 has a launch thrust of 1,110,000 lbf in space.

The launch today seemed to go as planned. Although the first launch attempt was aborted at T-2 seconds to liftoff, this was reported to be a feature, not a bug; a safety measure to help ensure there is nothing wrong with the rocket at launch. The vehicle did liftoff the second time around, with the vehicle payload making it to orbit. The only reported mistake so far came when the recovery ships arrived to recover the first stage of the rocket. Apparently, the parachute to slow the decent did not deploy, and it hit hard on the water breaking into pieces. This is the reason for test launches, and the problem is sure to be corrected.